Scotland’s ‘No’ Vote: A Loss for Pollsters and a Win for Betting Markets
New York Times – 10 hours ago
Prediction markets give much more reliable forecasts than pollsters, as do surveys of what voters expect will happen.
@MParekh: Polling Disruption: #Scotland’s ‘No’ Vote: A Loss for Pollsters and a Win for Betting Markets [link] via @UpshotNYT #Tech
EconLog: Betting Markets, Polls, and the Human Drama: We’re Wasting Resources and Throwing Away Information , by Art Carden
@ATabarrok: RT @JustinWolfers: @ATabarrok You’ll like this: [link]
@TimOBrien: “@JustinWolfers: My quick reaction: Scotland’s ‘No’ Vote: A Loss for Pollsters and a Win for Betting Markets [link]”
@JustinWolfers: Don’t miss my big piece on what political forecasters can learn from the Scottish referendum: [link]
@INETeconomics: Scotland’s ‘No’ Vote: A Loss for Pollsters and a Win for Betting Markets [link]
@jbarro: In referendum campaigns, "YES" usually underperforms the opinion polls. Scotland included. [link]
Abnormal Returns: Friday links: flexible asset allocations
@jmackin2: RT @JustinWolfers: My quick reaction: Scotland’s ‘No’ Vote: A Loss for Pollsters and a Win for Betting Markets [link]
@davidmwessel: Scotland’s ‘No’ vote is a loss for pollsters, a win for betting markets says @JustinWolfers [link]
@johnpmcdermott: Interesting piece by @JustinWolfers on prediction markets vs opinion polls in the #indyref -- [link]
Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia’s Ex-President, Plots Return From Williamsburg, Brooklyn
New York Times – 5 hours ago
After a steep fall from grace, the former president of Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili, is planning his life’s next chapter from a tower on the Williamsburg waterfront.
@TheStalwart: RT @TimFernholz: My favorite story today: Exiled Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili lives in Williamsburg [link]
@mccarthyryanj: The former president of Georgia has been exiled to Williamsburg, rides the L train [link]
@samgadjones: RT @ianbateson: Ex-Georgia Pres Saakashvili living in Williamsburg.Complains about money. Becomes hipster [link] http://t.…
@TomLasseter: Not the Onion. Amazing. --> Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia’s Ex-President, Plots Return From Williamsburg, Brooklyn [link]
@maxabelson: The best @jasondhorowitz so far: Saakashvili in Williamsburg. Future classic: [link]
@jbarro: Mikheil Saakashvili, hipster ex-president of Georgia, has moved to Williamsburg. [link]
@TonyTassell: Great read - Mikhei Saakashvili’s exile in Brooklyn hanging out with the hipsters. H/t @NoreenMalone @sullduggery [link]
Fortress Pays Executives for Expenses to Manage Fortunes
Bloomberg – 6 hours ago
Fortress Investment Group LLC gave four of its top executives $63 million in compensation last year. As part of the package, the first publicly traded private- equity and hedge-fund firm is paying to help manage their fortunes.
@pkedrosky: The latest in perksmanship: Fortress pays executives fortunes to manage their fortunes [link]
@SimoneFoxman: Fortress Pays Executives for Expenses to Manage Fortunes [link] via @BloombergNews
Here Is The City: Ex-Deutsche FX trading head in interesting career move
@JacobWolinsky: Interesting article - Fortress Pays Executives for Expenses to Manage Fortunes [link] via @BloombergNews
@nasiripour: RT @ErikSchatzker: It takes cojones to make public shareholders pay the costs of running your private family office [link]
@pdacosta: Fortress Pays Executives for Expenses to Manage Their Private Fortunes [link]
U.S. judge awards $40.7 million in SEC case over bitcoin Ponzi scheme
Reuters – 2 hours ago
(Reuters) - A U.S. federal judge in Texas ordered Bitcoin Savings and Trust and its owner to pay a combined $40.7 million after the Securities and Exchange Commission established that the company, which
@howardlindzon: lovely "@jackdamn: U.S. judge awards $40.7 million in SEC case over bitcoin Ponzi scheme [link] $BCOIN $BTCUSD"
@Techmeme: U.S. judge awards $40.7 million in SEC case over bitcoin Ponzi scheme [link] [link]
@JacobWolinsky: Shocked Bitcoin ponzi... U.S. judge awards $40.7 million in SEC case over bitcoin Ponzi scheme - Reuters [link]
Will US Economy Ever Be As Good As in the ’90s?
New York – 4 hours ago
Doc Martens were on the streets, Mariah was on the radio, and household incomes peaked.
@Noahpinion: Economic things that are better than in the 90s: more tech, much larger houses. That’s about it though. [link]
@AnnieLowrey: We peaked in 1999. [link]
@SconsetCapital: Cut.It.Out.RT @ezraklein: Bad news, America. We peaked in the 90s: [link]
@ezraklein: Bad news, America. We peaked in the 90s: [link]
Live Blogging Alibaba’s Big Debut
Wall Street Journal – 6 hours ago
Alibaba is set to start trading Friday morning after shares priced Thursday at $68 in one of the world’s largest initial public offerings ever. We’ll chronicle the trading minute-by-minute.
@TheStalwart: RT @ScottThurm: Think your portfolio is doing well today. Check out the move in Alibaba[link] [link]
@MParekh: Alibaba CEO Jack Ma on #NYSE floor: "Can’t leave w/o picture w/ Art Cashin". [link] $BABA
@SconsetCapital: RT @LauricellaTom: At the point on Alibaba, the question is where are the sellers? $92-$93$BABA [link]
@RolfeWinkler: RT @ScottThurm: Think your portfolio is doing well today. Check out the move in Alibaba[link] [link]
Kenny G and the Playmate Stock-Pickers
Bloomberg View – 6 hours ago
Celebrity stock-pickers get lots of attention from the news media, but they probably shouldn’t be taken as an indication that markets have reached a top.
@JacobWolinsky: Kenny G and the Playmate Stock-Pickers [link] via @BV
@TimOBrien: “@BV: “As music sales fall, sax player Kenny G turns to stockpicking.” Uh oh. [link] by @ritholtz [link]”
@TheArmoTrader: Great article by @ritholtz - Anecdotal data of markets tops stay anecdotal. "Kenny G & the Playmate Stock-Pickers" [link]
Dirty Secret of $1 Trillion Loans Is When Do You Get Money Back
Bloomberg – 1 day ago
Imagine a trillion-dollar market that runs on faxes and phone calls while routinely tying up investors’ money for months before they get any return.
@M_C_Klein: Leveraged loans are not very liquid, and run on faxes: [link] by @LisaAbramowicz1
Naked Capitalism: An Accident Waiting to Happen: The $1 Trillion Leveraged Loan Market
Here Is The City: Top firm CEO comments on Warren Buffett’s diet
@LorcanRK: RT @burgessansm: A $1 tln market that still uses fax machines and takes 3 weeks to settle a trade? [link] via @BloombergNews
@nasiripour: RT @burgessansm: A $1 tln market that still uses fax machines and takes 3 weeks to settle a trade? [link] via @BloombergNews
@creditplumber: ‘Brian Marchiony, a JPM spokesman & Zia Ahmed, a spokesman for BoA declined to comment.’ LOL. Via Naked Capitalism. [link]
Abnormal Returns: Friday links: flexible asset allocations
@DavidSchawel: Nice piece on leveraged loans & how they’re probably less liquid than you think by @LisaAbramowicz1 [link]
ECB: A three-pillar-strategy for the Euro
European Union – 12 hours ago
A three-pillar-strategy for the Euro
@ecb: Opinion piece Benoît Cœuré: A three-pillar-strategy for the Euro [link] (EN)
@EconBrothers: Opinion piece Benoît Cœuré: A three-pillar-strategy for the Euro #ECB [link]
@OpenEurope: Article by Benoît Cœuré & Jörg Asmussen - A three-pillar-strategy for the Euro [link]
@YanniKouts: ’A three-pillar-strategy for the #Euro’ ~Benoît Cœuré and Jörg Asmussen [link] #ECB
@LorcanRK: RT @PeterEhrlich: Op ed by Benoit Coeuré and Jörg Asmussen: A three pillar strategy for Europe [link]
@LemaSabachthani: A three-pillar-strategy for the Euro, by Benoît Cœuré and Jörg Asmussen ("writing in personal capacity.") [link]
Live Blog: Alibaba’s Shares Surge 36% at Opening
New York Times – 6 hours ago
The Alibaba Group, the e-commerce behemoth in China, makes a splashy debut at $92.70 a share on the New York Stock Exchange.
Mom-and-Dad Banks Step Up Aid to First-Time Home Buyers
Bloomberg – 8 hours ago
The Bank of Mom and Dad is playing a growing role as lender of last resort for a housing recovery struggling to provide more traction for the U.S. economy.
Hedge-funder’s defense in ‘grope’ case: I never grabbed her
NY Post – 7 hours ago
He says he’s a connoisseur of the “ass grab” — but this waitress just wasn’t on his menu. A wealthy hedge-fund titan made a bungled attempt to defend himself against a claim that he fondled a waitr...
Alex Salmond to resign as first minister after Scotland rejects independence
theguardian.com – 4 hours ago
Rolling coverage as Scotland votes no, and chooses to stay within the United Kingdom
Is it time to retire the most important chart in the world?
aei-ideas.org – 5 hours ago
I’ve used the above chart a lot. It shows the gap between actual GDP and potential GDP. It represents trillions in missing economic growth caused by a failure of the US economy to return to its pre...
There is literally not a single woman in this iPhone 6 queue
The Independent – 8 hours ago
The iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus finally go on sale around the world today and outside Apple’s Covent Garden store in London there is already a colossal queue, albeit one with a pretty skewed gender ratio.
@davewiner: London: There is literally not a single woman in this iPhone 6 queue. [link]
@TimOBrien: “@Independent: There is literally not a single woman in this iPhone 6 queue in London [link] [link]”
@EpicureanDeal: Wankers RT @Independent: There’s literally not a single woman in this iPhone 6 queue in London [link] [link]
How Scotland voted
Thomson Reuters – 12 hours ago
Scotland Independence Referendum
@lucymarcus: RT @lnoakes: Here’s Reuters’ interactive graphic on the referendum result [link]
@LaurenYoung: RT @ReutersGraphics: How Scotland voted council by council. Interactive map & table by @monicaulmanu #indyref [link] http:/…
@Reuters: RT @ReutersGraphics: How Scotland voted council by council. Interactive map & table by @monicaulmanu #indyref [link] http:/…
Scotland’s Vote Won’t Be the Last Battle of the Generations
Wall Street Journal – 5 hours ago
The Scottish independence vote looks increasingly like a skirmish in the war of the generations.
@tylercowen: RT @AlenMattich: Scotland’s pensioners swung the ’No’ vote. A generational battle being played out worldwide [link] http:/…
@MichaelKitces: RT @PhillipaLJ: The Scottish vote was a skirmish between the generations. This is why that matters [link] [link]…
@ryanchittum: RT @davidmwessel: Fascinating chart MT @PhillipaLJ: Scottish vote was skirmish among generations. [link] [link]…
Scotland votes to preserve the union
Financial Times – 8 hours ago
The United Kingdom has been saved, but this is no time for triumphalism. After a bruising referendum campaign, Scots voted decisively against independence. The break-up of Great Britain, and all the dangers that would have entailed, has bee...
Scottish independence referendum - Results - BBC News
BBC – 17 hours ago
Scottish independence referendum result from the BBC
@YanniKouts: #Scotland’s #indyref totals after 17 of 32 declarations:Yes 521,441 (43.8%)No 670,354 (56.2%)[link] /via @BBCNews
@RANsquawk: #indyref 29 of 32 counts. NO 55% NO 1,737,464; YES 45% YES 1,398,540 ... [link]
@Ian_Fraser: Scotland’s #indyref totals after 4 of 32 declarations:Yes 36,097 (42.2%)No 49,535 (57.8%)[link] via @BBCBreaking
@TheArmoTrader: RT @BBCBreaking: Scotland’s #indyref totals after 17 of 32 declarations:Yes 521,441 (43.8%)No 670,354 (56.2%)[link]
@TimOBrien: “@BBCBreaking: Scotland’s #indyref totals after 29 of 32 declarations:Yes 1,398,540 (44.6%)No 1,737,464 (55.4%)[link]”
Fact: T.L.T.R.O. is Too Low To Resuscitate Optimism
bruegel.org – 12 hours ago
Yesterday the ECB held the first auction of liquidity under its new TLTRO programme. The take up was well below expectations, raisi...
@FGoria: The @ECB TLTRO may soon become famous as an acronym for Too Low To Resuscitate Optimism [link] by @smerler via @bruegel_org
reddit/Economics: Bruegel: Fact: T.L.T.R.O. is Too Low To Resuscitate Optimism
@gusbaratta: RT @Altomonte_C: #ECB TLTRO did not start well: here is why [link] by@SMerler via @Bruegel_org another signal of the need …
Abenomics Spurs Record Wealth in Solace for Price Rises
Bloomberg – 7 hours ago
Japan’s household wealth rose to a record as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reflates the world’s third- biggest economy, giving a cushion to consumers facing higher costs of living.